Most Likely to Win
The Color Purple
I'm sorry, but America Ferrera is an Oscar nominee for Barbie?!?! To me, this is insane. She was lovely, and had that great monologue; but really? Though I wouldn't have been any more excited to see Julianne Moore (ugh) or Penelope Cruz (that movie was meh, though that's who I predicted over Ferrera) land in here - would've been more excited about Rosamund Pike for Saltburn, but that was a long shot too.
For the win... Randolph all the way. Not only was she great, but no one else here stands a chance (not Blunt's best work or role, Purple not doing well enough, Foster's won twice before & the movie isn't a big deal, and Ferrera... just no.)