Oscar
Predictions
Most Likely to
Be Nominated
Least Likely
West Side Story
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
Passing
1 2 3 4 5
6. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
7. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA
9. Ann Dowd, Mass
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
11. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
12. Meryl Streep, Don't Look Up
The world (at least those paying attention) were shocked by the absence of Ellis from the SAG noms; but her work is so lovely in a big Best Picture contender, so I think she'll make it in. Cate Blanchett was the surprise nominee - but the divisive response to that film will I think keep her from landing in.
The bigger question was: can Negga make it in, or will Rita Moreno? With SAG, I think Negga has gotten just what she needs to draw attention to her glorious performance; and while there will be some passion to nominate Moreno for a different role in the same IP that won her an Oscar 60 years ago, I just think her role is too limp to make it happen (plus she missed SAG.)
But, as always, we shall seeeeee!