6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance

7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

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I suppose any of these ten has a shot at a nod, but It's really a clear top two, then four vying for the last three slots.

 

Personally, as much as I loved Conclave, I CANNOT understand why Rossellini has done as well as she has this season - she's got about a handful of lines in the whole movie!!! Her "BIG SCENE" is I think only a few words?! BUT, she does bring as much as she can to what she has, with textured gravitas, so... Ok ok...

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Deadwyler is vulnerable here, as Piano Lesson isn't gaining much traction; so I could absolutely imagine Qualley slotting in above her. But I just think Substance's strength is wobbly, and mainly built on Demi.

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Can't wait to see Deadwyler's performance (she's incredible), LOVED Jones and Grande, and Saldana spins solid work with a mixed bag of a movie (imho). I'm rooting for Jones or Grande, but I think Saldana has this sewn up, as Emilia Perez's consolation prize (along with Best International Feature I presume).