Most Likely to
1 2 3 4 5
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World
7. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
Man, this category could go in ANY DIRECTION!!! Seyfried has been seen as the front-runner for the win, but Mank is really not landing with broad audiences, and she just missed out on SAG! I'd still say she's probably the front-runner for the win, but she's less likely to be nominated than Colman now, I'd say.
But truly ANY of these top five women could win it! Colman just won two years ago, but I hear amazing things and man is she good. Bakalova is highly likely to win best ACTRESS (in a Comedy) at the Globes, which will give her momentum - and it's quite a unique job she had, to not only act convincingly for us as Borat's daughter, but also act convincingly as a variety of other people to a variety of *real humans* they were gaming... The narrative there is strong, and I can SEE IT. Yuh-jung is allegedly just DIVINE in this crowd-pleaser (I. can't. wait. to. see. it!)
And then there's always the Glenn Close factor... she's never won, so sympathy for that can move mountains; plus she just landed both the Globe & SAG nods! Buuuuut... it was a panned film and she's a bit showy, so this could really be one of those performances that gets bot Globes & SAG and then misses with the Academy. But I dunno... I could see ANY 5 of these top 6 making it in, and it's so hard to say who's going to miss.
We'll see what momentum BAFTA and the collective consciousness bring!