Most Likely to
1 2 3 4 5
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
8. Florian Zeller, The Father
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
I think it's gonna be these 5, the exact list from the Golden Globe nominations. But it's so hard to say... If Chicago 7 and Mank fade as much as I hope they do between now and the March 15 nominations morning, I could see those two white men falling away... Though it seems unlikely, without particular directorial flashiness among the competitors nipping at the heels of these 5. (Fincher in particular should be solid, given the visual feast of Mank.)
Regina will face the challenge of the fact that Miami was a play and is thus a rather contained story that doesn't give her much room to strut her directorial stuff; but we love her and she nailed it, so... probably all good?
Emerald Fennell, but all accounts, ought to be a long shot, given how genre her movie is. But man is it bold, MAN is well directed in every way, and I just hate to imagine it not being widely beloved enough to ride the praise train this far. But we'll see - she may get squeezed out simply due to competition, as I hear such good things about Minari that Lee Isaac Chung has a GREAT shot here too...
We'll learn much more after the DGA nods are announced!