Most Likely

   to Win

Least Likely

1               2                3               4               5

I got 4/5, missing Todd Phillips (booooo - Joker was SO ABUNDANTLY FLAWED!!), as I only-somewhat-optimistically predicted Jojo Rabbit's Taika Waititi.  Alas.

(see my thoughts on the absence of women on my response to the nominees)


Best Picture could really go to any of the leading 4, and so could this!!!

It's the technical achievement (Mendes) vs. the veteran's epic swan song (Scorsese) vs. the veteran who's never won before (Tarantino) vs. the newer auteur in his prime (Joon-ho).  So hard to say!!!

Right now I'm feeling Mendes after his Globes win and that movie's splashy landing on the scene in its Jan 10 wide release - I feel like there will be a quick charge to reward this movie at least SOMEWHERE big (and Hollywood already has Pitt in the bag, and is the front-runner for picture, and perhaps screenplay; and Parasite will undoubtedly win international film).

But I dunno!  The fact that Tarantino has never won is a thing.  And Joon-ho composed a yarn that blends a delicious collection of genres into an artistic cocktail like we've never seen before.  Though are both of these latter accomplishments more in the writing by these writer-directors?  That too will be a nail-biter.

Oscar Predictions
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