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Most Likely to Win

Least Likely

1              2                3               4               5

I missed Zone, predicting Killers instead - I knew it was close.

As for the win, I think this is probably writer/director Cord Jefferson's to lose, for American Fiction - Fiction did better than expected on nominations day, and Barbie did worse.  I could imagine any of these taking it, and Poor Things will definitely be considered, as that's a big horse and that'd be a way to reward Yorgos.  But I think Barbie has the best chance of passing Fiction, as the groundswell of upset over Gerwig's director snub could lead to votes here, and that movie is so beloved and quite unlikely to win anything else major.  I just don't think that its writing in particular is as talked about as the writing of Fiction (though I preferred Barbie & its script, personally.)

Oscar Predictions
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