Oscar

Nominees

Most Likely

   to Win

Least Likely

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Oscar Predictions

I missed Joker (I hate the world for this nomination), instead predicting A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.  Turns out the Academy is more interested in celebrating the Joker than Mr. Rogers... :/ 

AS FOR TH WIN:

Gold Derby is ranking The Irishman at #1 here, and there are ways in which that makes sense.  Primarily: if its status in the Picture & Director races continues to stall out, then this will be a top category in which to acknowledge this impressive showing.  But on the other hand: it's hard to imagine a boring 3.5 hour mobster movie winning a writing award.  I'd like to see it lose on the mere inability for its revision team to count page numbers!

But: Greta Gerwig is a new Academy darling, and provided a unique & successful spin on this age-old Little Women yarn, and the movie wound up landing an almost-elusive best picture nod.  And I think the not-quiet response to the lack of female presence among the best director nominees (for which she was far & away the most likely female to be nominated) will lead to a groundswell of support for HER, which will lead her to the podium.  (Gold Derby is now calling it neck & neck between her & Irishman, so... yeah momentum is shifting.)

The only other contender that really has a chance is Taika Waititi's wildly inventive Jojo script.  Waititi has been making waves through the industry for years and has finally made a movie that the Academy can love him for.  It's the perfect category to tip a hat to this big 2019 flick, and to reward Waititi as well, so I wouldn't be shocked to see a Jojo upset here.  But it's still a pretty long shot.

So glad Two Popes made it onto this list - it's a treasure.

And then there's Joker... I can't event.

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