Most Likely to
1 2 3 4 5
I called all 5! (As did most, though.)
As for the win, my money is on Mulligan right now (as the lone award that film is likely to win - though it has more than a fighting chance in original screenplay!)
But it's tight - McDormand carries the leading movie of the year, and Viola was INCREDIBLE in Ma Rainey. If her role were a touch larger (it's light for lead) and hadn't won supporting just 4 years ago, I think this would be hers - Halle Berry remains the only Black woman to have won for a leading role, and there's well-placed passionate desire to change that stat. But after Ma Rainey's snub for best picture, I think Mulligan is looking good - her role is SO rich & layered, and she nails each nuance astoundingly well.
But we'll see what SAG & BAFTA tell us!