Oscar

Predictions

Most Likely to

Win

Least Likely

Carey Mulligan
Carey Mulligan

Promising Young Woman

Viola Davis
Viola Davis

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Andra Day
Andra Day

The US vs. Billie Holiday

Frances McDormand
Frances McDormand

Nomadland

Vanessa Kirby
Vanessa Kirby

Pieces of a Woman

1               2                3               4               5

And the Oscar for Best Actress goes to...

Oscar Predictions
mcdormand.jpg

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Sweet mother of God.  I LOVE Frances McDormand, and never would have imagined being UPSET about her winning an Oscar.  But yup, here I am and that is exactly how I feeeeel.

Truly, Mulligan Davis and Day turned in three of my favorite Best Actress performances EVER - any one of them would have beat almost any other performance that I've given my lead actress Dickie Award to.  I would have been over the moon for any of them, and instead it goes to Frances just three years after her last win, for a rather similar role.  In a night when she's already slated to win (and actually, in the reordering of the awards, HAD ALREADY WON) Best Picture, as a producer on the film.  UGHHHHH.

How'd this happen?!  I think voters just loved this movie, and she IS the movie.  Plan and simple.  Sometimes voters don't think enough about spreading the wealth or representation.  Davis and Day's movies weren't as loved, and Mulligan's movie is rather genre for a category like this.   I guess that mattered more than it should.  And I am NOT HAPPY ABOUT IT.