Oscar

Nominees

Most Likely

   to Win

Least Likely

1               2                3               4               5

I missed Cynthia Erivo (but yay!), predicting Awkwafina instead.  That must have been a photo finish!

AS FOR THE WIN:

IMHO, Renee gave one of the most obnoxiously pushed and ungrounded over-the-top performances of all time.  Nonetheless, she is widely considered the front-runner here, and I think the *size* of her performance combined with this buzz will push her through to the end, as absurd as that is.  It's hard to accept that the "Reneessance" will be sufficiently desired  to merit win #2 (she won for 2003's Cold Mountain), but at the moment she has the front-runner status by a mile, especially after the Globes win.  (Though could that wackadoo speech have hurt her???)

Conventional wisdom is that Theron or Johansson have the best shot to usurp her - Theron disappeared into Megyn Kelly, and Johansson had quite a year (and Marriage is beloved).

 

But my view: Bombshell had a lukewarm response (overall, but especially here - only garnering a handful of nods), and Theron has already won (I know Renee has too, but I'm just saying the deck isn't stacked for Theron to pull an upset).  And Johnasson's double-nomination could hurt her, as some will vote for her for supporting instead (plus the movie's status has plateaued - Dern's expected win will suffice for it).

So in my view - why wouldn't Ronan be the one to upset here?  Little Women landed in for best picture and 6 nods total, Oscar loves a young bright star, and this is Saoirse's fourth nomination!  And, if you ask me, it's her best work to date and absolutely the best of the crop.  I still think Renee will take it (it's a flashier role, it's Judy Garland after all, and people did seem to love her in it), but I'm just saying... Fingers crossed!!!

(And Cynthia - she's a phenom, but for a movie of that middling quality, the surprise nom alone is her prize.)

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