Most Likely to

Be Nominated

Least Likely

1               2                3               4               5

6. David Strathairn, Nomadland

7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova

8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

9. Jared Leto, The Little Things

10. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

11. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

12. Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

13. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

What a wacky category - early awards are all over the place, though Paul Raci got the most before then getting snubbed by the Globes and SAG.  There are so many potential nominees from Chicago 7 and Ma Rainey alone that it's so hard to say where the wind will go in that regard.  Not to mention Ma Rainey lead Boseman's supporting turn in the movie with the most unpredictable journey, Da 5 Bloods.

But my money is on the Globes being wrong about Bill Murray (MAN that movie was GARBAGE), both Globes & SAG being wrong about Jared Leto (a thriller that's got 47% on rottentomatoes? hmm...), and this being the five.

Odom, Kaluuya, & Cohen are looking quite solid after being the only three to score with both Globes & SAG.  I'm nervous about Raci but sticking with him.  And I'm not so sure on Boseman - I didn't think that role was much to speak of at all, and he's likely to win actor, so what's the point?!  But the double nom does happen sometimes (even in years when one win is looking in the bag, like with Jamie Foxx in 2004), and the novelty of that happening posthumously is pretty cool.  Just so hard to say how Da 5 will fair, and there are loads of other options here.  (Will Strathairn emerge once Nomadland is really out there, or will Tucci's gay alzheimers role shine?  Who knows!)

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