Oscar
Predictions
Most Likely to
Be Nominated
Least Likely
Oscar Predictions
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10
11. Nightmare Alley
12. Being the Ricardos
13. House of Gucci
14. Spider-Man: No Way Home
15. Cyrano
16. The Lost Daughter
17. Spencer
These top 6 feel particularly solid, and I'd say BOOM & CODA are looking good at this point. The trick is those last two slots... Can Macbeth slide in despite its poor performance with precursor awards? I think so, because it's simply immaculate, and director Joel Coen (& stars Denzel & McDormand) have such cred with the Academy. Can Don't Look Up, despite a wildly divisive response? It's tenuous... but its lovers do seem to be passionate, writer/director Adam McKay does tend to perform well with the Academy even with divisive films with mediocre reviews (a la Vice), and it did just land a SAG ensemble nod, which isn't nothing.
But we shall see!! Some other similarly divisive films are nipping at its heels, and the heels of a few others.