Most Likely to
All 8 of these were in my top 10 predictions, but only 6 in my top 8, so... 6/8 for me :/
(I had surprise snubbees Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami in over Metal and Father.)
So... Nomadland is the front-runner here, but more by default than anything else. It's widely appreciated, but how much passion really is there? It's easy to imagine another movie riding a swell of passion to eclipse it, but what could do it?! Minari feels too small, Trial feels too "typical" & unexciting, Promising feels too genre, and on & on.
But we'll see!! PGA & BAFTA winners will tell us a lot.