Oscar

Predictions

Most Likely to

Win

Least Likely

Oscar Predictions

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All 8 of these were in my top 10 predictions, but only 6 in my top 8, so... 6/8 for me :/

(I had surprise snubbees Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami in over Metal and Father.)

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So... Nomadland is the front-runner here, but more by default than anything else.  It's widely appreciated, but how much passion really is there?  It's easy to imagine another movie riding a swell of passion to eclipse it, but what could do it?!  Minari feels too small, Trial feels too "typical" & unexciting, Promising feels too genre, and on & on.

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But we'll see!!  PGA & BAFTA winners will tell us a lot.

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