6. Hard Truths

7. All We Imagine as Light

8. Challengers
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

10. Saturday Night

11. Blitz

12. Babygirl

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Gold Derby has Hard Truths ahead of September 5, but I don't think so... But idk - neither is really being talked about at all! This category is certainly weaker than adapted this year (though WHY has Saturday Night not done better?! - so sad...)

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And actually, I could really see All We Imagine getting in, partly to make up for the India not submitting it as their Best International Feature entry. And I could really imagine fan-fave Challengers in here as well. We'll see what WGA (one of the few precursors that divides between original & adapted) goes with.

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But yeah, I think these first four are looking good. And for the win, I think this is where Anora's writer-director Sean Baker will win, since it's a big one this year and he's unlikely to win director. I see a Brutalist director / Anora writer split, with one of those two winning Best Pic.