I missed 1917 (yay), predicting The Farewell instead (well, I didn't like it, but I am bummed about that snubbing of diversity!)
AS FOR THE WIN:
Gold Derby is giving Hollywood the OVERWHELMING odds here. But wait a minute: Tarantino has already won this category twice before, and he's expected to already head to the podium for best picture. Hmm.
Tough call - because the writing IS perhaps what is most responsible for igniting the strong love for this film (love enough that it's the front-runner), so a win here WOULD make sense in many ways.
Buuuuut: isn't the writing most responsible for how geniusly constructed Parasite is? And won't the academy want to acknowledge Bong Joon-ho personally for a piece of his writing/director work (beyond just international film, which he'd share with other producers)?
I'll probably end up caving and predicting Hollywood, but for now let me dream my dream :)