Most Likely to

Be Nominated

Least Likely

1               2                3               4               5

6. Gary Oldman, Mank

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

8. John David Washington, Malcolm and Marie

9. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

This is a strong category this year...

It looks like Chadwick Boseman's to lose, anchored by the fact that this is quite a performance to go out on before his shocking death from cancer in August.  He gave this one his all, and while I found his work occasionally a bit theatrical, there's no denying its dynamic nature and full-body commitment.

He's a lock for a nom, as are Anthony Hopkins and Riz Ahmed it seems (I have yet to see The Father, but Ahmed is incredible.)

The last two slots are a real tight race.  The Globes went with Gary Oldman and Tahar Rahim (who?!  in WHAT now?!) for the last two in the Best Actor in a Drama race (the Comedy category is slim pickings this year), and SAG went for Gary Oldman and Steven Yeun.

All signs point to Gary Oldman making it in, and current signs are to Delroy Lindo not.  But... this JUST doesn't add up to me.  Gary Oldman did nothing exciting in Mank, and he just won 3 years ago.  Lindo on the other hand has never been nominated despite a career of excellent work, and this was widely considered to be his crowning achievement.

Meanwhile, Steven Yeun just needed to get some attention, as did his film, to get a shot at the big dance; with Minari's strong showing with SAG, I think it and he are poised to slide in.  I hear incredible things.

So, I'm going out on a limb and saying Yeun and Lindo, and no Oldman.  But we'll see where things are looking in... MID-MARCH!!!

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