Most Likely to


Least Likely

1               2                3               4               5

DEFINITELY didn't predict Lakeith Stanfield, the definitive LEAD of Judas and the Black Messiah, to land in this category, after zero precursor nods for supporting and after its studio campaigned him in lead.

Truly, one of the most wild things I've ever seen.  This came out of NOWHERE.

But: given that there wasn't room for him in lead, I'm happy to see him acknowledged somewhere (as weird & wrong as it is), because he was EXCELLENT!

But: I called the rest!

And as for the win, this is Kaluuya's to lose.  And now that Judas landed a Best Pic nod and Miami was overlooked, he's extended his lead over Odom rather definitively. 

The only source of tenuousness for DK is the fact that his co-star Lakeith is also nominated here, potentially splitting some votes.  That REALLY could happen, because LS is terrific too... So let's watch for that.  But I think DK's momentum is strong enough to hold.

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Leslie Odom Jr.

One Night in Miami