Most Likely to
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Wow, Danish filmmaker Thomas Vinterberg really came out of nowhere here, eh?!
(I expected Aaron Sorkin to fill that spot - most predicted Sorkin or Regina King. This is surely a big surprise.)
As for the win, this is Zhao's to lose (and she won't lose) - it'll be the first woman of color to win this award! It's sad that that's yet to happen, but at least it's (fingers crossed) happening!!